STA441S: Methods of Applied Statistics

University of Toronto Mississauga, Winter/Spring 2018

http://utstat.toronto.edu/~brunner/441s18

Lecture: Monday 11:10-1:00 and Wednesday 11:10-12:00 in IB 335

• Instructor: Jerry Brunner
• Office: 3028 Deerfield Hall
• Phone: 905-828-3816
• email: brunner[at]utstat.toronto.edu
• Office Hours: Monday 1:10-3:00 and Wednesday 12:10-1:00

Note: Jerry does not read his email every day. It is much more efficient to talk with him before or after class, or during office hours.

Tutorials: Tuesday 10:10-11:00 in DH 2080 and 11:10-12:00 in DH 2070

• Instructor: Asal Aslemand
• Office: 2034 Deerfield Hall
• email: asal.aslemand[at]mail.utoronto.ca
• Office Hours: Monday and Tuesday 9:10-10:00 a.m.

Text: There is no textbook for this course at the bookstore. A free online text will be available on the course home page. The first few chapters are posted now. Material in the text overlaps with lectures.

Topics: Vocabulary and concepts of data analysis, Review of statistical inference, Introduction to SAS, Review of multiple regression including ummy variables, Interactions, Logistic regression, Extension of logistic regression to more than two response categories, One-factor ANOVA with multiple comparisons, Factorial ANOVA, Power and sample size, Nested designs, Random effects and mixed models, Methods for within-cases (repeated measures, longitudinal) data.

Prerequisites: STA302 or permission of the instructor. Students who lack the prerequisite can be removed at any time unless they receive an explicit waiver in writing or by email from the department.

Grading: Marks will be based on equally weighted weekly quizzes given in tutorial, unannounced pop quizzes given in lecture, and a comprehensive final exam. Percentages are as follows:

Quizzes in Tutorial	40%
Pop quizzes in Lecture	10%
Final Exam	50%

Regular quizzes will be given in tutorial almost every Tuesday starting January 16th. Quiz dates are January 16, 23, 30, Feb. 6, 13, 27, March 6, 13, 20, 27, April 3 -- for a total of 11 quizzes. The lowest quiz mark will be dropped.

You are not allowed to float between tutorial sections. Pick one and stick to it; drop and add if necessary. If you take a quiz in the wrong section without prior approval from Asal, the mark is zero.

Please note that your quiz papers and any printouts you turn in with the quiz may be scanned or photocopied before they are returned.

There will be an assignment for each regular quiz. The knowledge you need to do each quiz is a subset of the knowledge you need to do the corresponding assignment. Some (most) of the assignments include a computer part. You will bring printouts to the quiz and answer questions based on the printouts. Possibly, one of the quiz questions will be to hand in a printout. The non-computer parts of the assignments are just to prepare you for the quizzes; they will never be handed in.

Pop quizzes will be given in lecture. The number of pop quizzes and their timing is non-random but not known in advance. The pop quizzes will be very easy, and the marking will be generous. Students will not be admitted to the classroom once a pop quiz has started. This means it is pointless to text your friends and tell them to come to class because there is a pop quiz. Missed pop quizzes receive a zero, but the lowest score (one of the zeros, is you have any) will be dropped.

In spite of the weighting scheme, a good performance on the final exam can save a student from failing the course. Suppose your average including the final exam is less than 50%. If your mark on the final exam is at least 70%, or your mark on the final exam is at the class median or above, then you get a mark of 50% for the course. This rule is intended to give hope to students who have messed up on the quizzes, and encourage them to study for the final exam. In the past, very few have been saved this way, because marks on the final exam tend to be lower than the term average.

Policy for missed work: If you miss a regular quiz or pop quiz, the mark is zero. However, your lowest quiz mark of each type will be dropped. If you miss a quiz with a valid excuse, your mark on the final exam (out of 10) will be substituted for the missing quiz mark, and the lowest remaining mark will still be dropped. If you believe you have a valid excuse for missing term work, please see Jerry (not the Asal) during office hours or before or after class.

What is a valid excuse? Here are some guidelines. If you miss a quiz for medical reasons, you must submit a University of Toronto Medical Certificate (not just a note), available at

http://www.illnessverification.utoronto.ca.

The certificate must include the statement that you were unable to write the test or quiz for medical reasons. If the certificate does not clearly state that you were unable to function, the excuse will not be accepted. Documentation must show that the physician was consulted on the day of the quiz, or on the next day. A statement merely confirming a report of illness made by the student is not acceptable.

On the other extreme, automotive breakdown or other transportation problems are never valid excuses. If you miss term work because you are taking another class at the same time as this one, that is not a valid excuse. The printer jammed, my dog ate it, etc. fall into the same category. If the University is officially open, weather is a valid excuse only if more than 50% of the class miss the quiz.

Drop Date: The last date to drop this course from your Academic Record and GPA is March 14, 2018.

Academic Honesty: It is an academic offence to present someone else's work as your own, or to allow your work to be copied for this purpose. To repeat: the person who allows her/his work to be copied is equally guilty, and subject to disciplinary action by the university.

The main rule is don't copy, and don't let anyone else copy from you. You are expected to do the work yourself, and then perhaps compare answers after you have done so. A good rule is to never help someone who hasn't started yet. Here are some detailed guidelines.

• For the non-computer parts of the homework, I believe that students learn better if they do the work independently, and then compare answers afterward. I wish I could enforce this, but in practice I cannot. Please be aware, though, that some of the questions ask for original examples. In such cases, if two students give the same example they will both get zero for the question. This means that if you allow a classmate to photograph and memorize your answers, you could get a zero.
• For some regular quizzes, you will be asked to bring your printouts to the quiz in tutorial; maybe you will hand them in, and maybe you will use them to answer questions. Never, ever, bring a copy of somebody else's printout, or allow anyone to have a copy of yours. Your "friends" may ask you. You are expected to refuse.
• If you allow anyone to have an electronic copy of your computer work, for any reason, you are not only guilty of an academic offence, you have lost your mind.
• If you are asked to hand in your log file and results file, your name and student number should be on both printouts. You are allowed to write your name and student number on the printouts in advance, but do not write anything else on your printouts in advance.
• This should be obvious, but if you are asked for a number from your printout and you don't have a printout, do not answer the question and pretend you remembered the number. If you do, you will be charged with an academic offence.
• This also should be obvious, but you are not allowed to put answers or any other material related to the non-computer questions in comment statements, or otherwise cause such material to appear on your printout.
• You are also not allowed to put interpretation or explanation of results on your printout. You are allowed to put question numbers, or the question the analysis is trying to answer, or both if you wish. The rule is that you may not put anything on the printout that you could not have typed before seeing the results. An exception is numbers from the results file that are used as input to proc iml.
• For the computer parts of the homework, it is surprisingly easy to detect copying, and copying from other students is not allowed. If two students have computer work that is excessively similar, but not similar to what was presented in lecture or office hours, that is evidence of cheating. Of course it's easier to detect if the work is also wrong.
• It is permitted to copy from Jerry or Asal. If your work is very similar to what is presented in lecture, office hours or suggested readings, that is okay.
• Direct copying of computer code from the internet (other than from the class website of STA441H5 2018) is prohibited. You are expected to do the work yourself.
• It is acceptable to get help with your computer assignments from someone outside the class, but the help must be limited to general discussion and examples that are not the same as the assignment. As soon as you get an outside person to actually start working on one of your computer assignments, you have committed an academic offence.
• Be particularly careful about paying outside "tutors" to do the computer assignments for you. If they solve the problems (or otherwise obtain solutions) for money and give you the answers with or without explanation, you are guilty of an academic offence. If they are students, they are also guilty, and face possible expulsion from the university for a first offence.
• Because we will be using SAS in this course, it's possible to be very specific about what you are allowed to do and are not allowed to do.
  • In SAS (unlike R) the program and statistical output are in separate files. It is absolutely forbidden to look at anyone else's SAS program file, or to allow anyone to look at yours. It is very tempting for friends to "work together" on an assignment side by side, typing in basically the same material, running their jobs at the same time and making the same corrections. (They call it working together, but one is usually a parasite.) This is an academic offence. Don't do it. The work does not need to be completely identical for you to be charged with an academic offence. All we need is convincing evidence that one person has been influenced by the other person's code. It is easier to detect than you think.
  • You are allowed to compare numerical answers and discuss their meaning. This means it is okay to show other students your SAS output file if they also show you theirs. However, it is very dangerous to let anyone have a copy of your output file, especially an electronic copy. It they turn it in, or transmit it to someone else who turns it in, you are guilty of an academic offence because you have provided an unauthorized aid to another student.
  • Beware of this specific situation. You have finished the computer assignment, and your friend has not started yet. He or she asks for a copy of your output file (not the program file), to compare answers later, some time in the middle of the night. You agree, but your friend never does finish the assignment. Instead, your friend brings his or her messed up log file and your output file. They are handed in with the quiz, the fraud is detected, and you are both convicted of an academic offence.
  • Log files are a dangerous grey area, because the log file includes a copy of the SAS program as well as any error and warning messages. It is permitted for a student who has completely finished the assignment to look at another student's log file to help with SAS syntax problems, but only if he or she is not influenced. If the student who is "helping" copies code from the other person's log file, both parties are guilty of an academic offence. It is safest to get help with SAS syntax errors by showing the log file to Jerry or Asal. In any case, never show a log file without errors to another student.
• Don't copy, and don't let anyone copy from you. If we catch you, you will get in big trouble. Over and above trouble from the university, you do not want to receive a visit from my Associates. They know where you live.

If this is not clear enough, the latest version of the student handout "How not to Plagiarize" is available at http://www.writing.utoronto.ca/advice/using-sources/how-not-to-plagiarize The Academic Regulations of the University are outlined in the Code of Behaviour on Academic matters, which can be found in the Arts and Science Calendar or on the web at http://www.governingcouncil.utoronto.ca/policies/behaveac.htm.

Accessibility Needs: We are committed to accessibility. If you require accommodations for a disability, or have any accessibility concerns about the course, the classroom or course materials, please contact Jerry or Accessibility Services (visit http://www.utm.utoronto.ca/accessability or email accessconfirm.utm@utoronto.ca) as soon as possible.